Wednesday, 13 January 2010


Predicting future events is not easy,and it certainly isn't a scientific exercise, but sometimes the planets are in such close alignment as to make something happening more than odds-on,and here's one such prediction you may want to consider;

If David Cameron had done slightly better and secured a working majority of say 20 then there would be no coalition and Cameron would not have had to eat his words about the disasters of a hung parliament But there is a coalition where both parties have to eat their words against the wishes of their most vocal backbenchers,and that leads to the major problem with the two party coalition,party factions are doubled.

The coalition of two parties may seem to be all sweetest and light now,but it would be naive in the extreme not to realize it's a coalition of two totally different parties, both preparing to run for cover when everything goes pear shaped, and the one most able to say"I TOLD YOU SO" would be the one to come out on top.

Just take just one policy where the two parties were totally apposed during the election,THE SIX BILLION POUNDS CUT,which will only be an aperitif fortaste of the main course of cuts to come.
The most clinical way to deliver cuts without causing social unrest is to target the most vulnerable workers who are not represented by a strong trade union,but that is highly unlikely to be the case.

If the six billion cuts are real, and not wishful aspirations,like reducing tax avoidance, then a level of social unrest is bound to result.It's also likely there will be a political cost to both parties in containing the workers' backlash. If the political cost is significant then a door of opportunity could open for Nick Clegg to start back tracking on his recent, and not very convincing, conversion to the six billion cuts. in preparation for pointing the finger of blame if the main course of cuts...if they survive to get that far...creates social unrest on a scale that would threaten the coalition.

To understand what Nick Clegg would do between the FIST COURSE and the MAIN COURSE of cuts, you first have to understand that he is the most professional politician in Parliament who will champion any cause that will promote his consumer friendly image, even if he doesn't understand the cause, like the time when he was championing the poor underclass and didn't have a clue what the state pension was.

Having read the writing on the wall during the chaos of the first course, Nick Clegg will take soundings about joining the Tory Party as he will have calculated it is better belonging to what could become the main opposition than leading the third party that would be cast into the abyss of politics when the coalition fails and the parties go their separate ways.

But why would the Tories want Nick Clegg? The answer to that question could be very simple. First, the Tories wont want David Cameron with more of his bare faced exploitation of his family and his BIG SOCIETY fudge with the hidden agenda to make Britain the most unequal society in Europe, which means they'll be looking for a new leader,and that's when Nick Clegg could score because in truth they'll have no one else to turn to unless their prepared to give Duncan Smith or William Hague a second chance, but that wont happen because the Tories, more than any other party, don't give losers a second chance.

When Nick Clegg changes his allegiance is critical because it has got to happen when his party least expects it, and that wont be easy,especially if any one of his party happens to read this article.
Not only has it to be unexpected, it's got to happen when Cameron and the Tories least suspect his ulterior motives.

The next tricky manoeuvre will be explaining to the Liberals his reasons for joining the Tories while holding the coalition together.Well, he's already implied he's joined at the hip with Dave Cameron so it may come as no surprise to his party when he does make the move. He could could also explain, as a Tory, his position of DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER will be more credible and effective during Parliament Question Time.

But it may not only be Nick Clegg who runs for cover to the Tory Party.Those Liberals with ministerial jobs are lightly to follow in Nick Clegg's wake, especially if their jobs are secure.In fact, enough Liberals could jump ship to give the Tories a working majority, which could make it possible for the to Tories to hang-on without the support of the Liberal.

Evan if the Tories were to become the opposition, it will be a larger party, more effective in holding the executive to account, and the liberals will have become an insignificant rump.

If nothing else, the two party coalition has improved our understanding of politicians, and it doesn't paint a pretty picture. Their aggressively ambitious,secrative, devious,evasive, and corrupter of facts, which makes any event possible, including NICK CLEGG DUMPING THE LIBERALS TO BECOME LEADER OF THE TORY PARTY.

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